Aviation economics · Ireland, New Zealand and Australia

Clear analysis for airport pricing, demand and capacity decisions.

I help airports and aviation organisations build usable models, test their options and explain decisions to airlines, boards and stakeholders.

Map of New Zealand coloured by the major airport each area can drive to fastest

Clients and employers include

  • Dunedin Airport
  • Queenstown Airport
  • Milford Sound Tourism
  • Auckland Airport
  • Midas Aviation

Map: each area coloured by the major airport it can drive to fastest. Explore it

What I do

As a bounded project, or as contract support inside your team. Open any service to see an example.

00How I work

I work in two ways. The first is a bounded project: we agree the question, what you'll receive and when, and I deliver it.

The second is contract support, where I work inside your team for a set period. That might mean reviewing models, writing decision papers, or setting up reporting that keeps running after I leave.

Either way, you get a usable handover: documented models, written-down assumptions, and a walk-through so your team can keep using the work.

Ask about contract support
How I workHow a project runsFrom the first conversation to a usable handover
Four steps: a scoping conversation, an agreed question and deliverables, analysis and review, and a usable handover
01Passenger forecasting and planning

I build long-term demand paths for master plans, pricing periods and investment timing.

Forecasts come as scenarios, not a single line, so you can see how much terminal and apron capacity to plan for and when the decision becomes urgent.

At Queenstown Airport I led the long-term passenger forecast that fed pricing and the master plan.

Queenstown Airport
01 · ForecastingGrowth forecast scenariosAnnual passengers, indexed (illustrative)
Three illustrative demand paths for a master plan, indexed
02Airport pricing and financial modelling

I build pricing models that meet Commerce Commission expectations and stand up in airline consultation.

The model sets out the asset base, cost of capital, operating costs and forecast passengers, so everyone can see how a price was reached and test the alternatives.

I've done this for Dunedin Airport, and managed regulated pricing and information disclosure at Queenstown Airport.

Dunedin Airport
02 · PricingPricing methodologyHow the asset base and free cash flows set the price
Diagram of the pricing method: the asset base and free cash flows are discounted so the return covers the cost of capital
03Capacity and scheduling

I set slot coordination, schedule rules and capacity limits that work on a busy day.

That starts with measuring demand hour by hour against what the runway, terminal or wharf can handle, then agreeing rules with the operators who use it.

I introduced Level 3 slot coordination at Queenstown Airport and designed the scheduling system for Milford Sound Port.

Milford Sound Port
03 · CapacityPeak hour capacityAircraft movements per rolling hour against declared capacity (illustrative)
Illustrative chart of aircraft movements per rolling hour against declared capacity
04Route development

I build business cases for new routes, along with regional analysis and airline incentive models.

The aim is to show an airline why the route makes sense, using catchment, visitor and fare data, and to show the airport what an incentive is worth.

This work started in network planning at Air New Zealand, and most of my current clients for it are under NDA.

Work under NDA
04 · RoutesRoute networkSeats into Queenstown, example data
Example route map of seats into Queenstown from Auckland and Australian airports
05Dashboards and reporting

I build Power BI dashboards and charts that your team can keep up to date and use.

Reports refresh from the source data, so you're not rebuilding the same pack each month.

My public chart library is an example: New Zealand and Irish data, refreshed from official sources.

Chart library
05 · ReportingInterest ratesCash rate and swap rates, per cent a year. Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Chart of the official cash rate and 2-year and 10-year swap rates since 2016
06Challenging analytics

I take on messy data, mapping and modelling problems that need more than a spreadsheet.

I use R and Python where Excel runs out, for drive-time catchments, large booking or movement datasets, and automated data pipelines.

The airport catchment map is one example: drive times from every area of New Zealand to its nearest airports.

Airport catchments
06 · AnalyticsAirport catchmentsNearest major airport by road, New Zealand
Map of New Zealand coloured by nearest major airport by road

Michael Hawley

Ten years on the airline and airport side, now working independently from Dublin.

My background spans Air New Zealand network planning, Auckland Airport commercial analysis and leading aeronautical work at Queenstown Airport. More about me

Michael Hawley at Queenstown Airport