2024 August Economic Snapshot

2024 August Economic Snapshot.pdf

New Zealand’s economy is in a “wait and see” phase as higher interest rates continue to cool spending, housing, and investment. Inflation is easing, but the adjustment has been sharp: retail spend has fallen back to 2016 levels, job postings are at lows not seen since the mid-2000s, and mortgage repayments are now on par with the government’s annual tax take. Construction and domestic tourism are weakening, while US visitor arrivals provide a rare bright spot. With the yield curve inverted since mid-2023, signs point to a downturn running through late 2024 into 2025, though employment remains resilient and widespread layoffs appear unlikely. This snapshot provides a concise view of where New Zealand stands—and what may lie ahead.