2025 July Economic Update
New Zealand’s economy is stuck in a grind: interest rates are high, mortgages are chewing up a record $90 billion a year, and house prices have slumped—leaving households poorer and spending less. Construction is at a 15-year low, job ads have collapsed, and real wages are going backwards even as more people work. Tourism offers little relief: Kiwis are travelling but spending less, Australians are pulling back, and only a surge of U.S. visitors is keeping parts of the sector afloat. With Air New Zealand facing a decade of no real fleet growth, capacity constraints risk locking in sluggishness. The outlook? Rising unemployment, weak growth, and a tough road ahead.